Field events 麦田里的那些事儿

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Wheat prices 小麦价格 Field events 麦田里的那些事儿 Volatile wheat prices are as much a cause for alarm as are high prices 除价格过高之外，小麦价格不稳定也同样会造成恐慌 Sep 9th 2010 2010年9月9日  　　FEW rural pleasures match seeing a golden field of grain, rustling and ripe for reaping. But the harvest season in the northern hemisphere is being marked by turmoil on global wheat markets. 　　对于在乡间消遣时光的人来说，看看金黄色的麦田，听听麦穗发出沙沙的响声，感受感受它们成熟待收割的气息，恐怕没有比这更惬意的事了。然而，全球小麦市场的混乱却成了今年北半球收获季节的主题。 　　A big reason is to be found in one of the world’s largest wheat exporters, Russia. Hit by fires and drought which have wiped out a third of the grain crop, the authorities there have banned exports, first temporarily and now until next year’s harvest. As a result, wheat prices spiked: they have nearly doubled since the low point in June of $4.26 a bushel. That has prompted global jitters. When the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) called a special meeting to discuss rising prices, headlines suggested that the world was facing a food crisis to rival that of 2007-08. Riots in Mozambique in recent days, perhaps prompted by spiralling food costs, added more fodder to the fears. 　　出现这种状况，在很大程度上是世界最大小麦出口国之一??俄罗斯的问题。由于国内发生大火和干旱，俄罗斯有三分之一的谷物作物被毁得一干二净，于是当局决定颁布出口禁令，先是暂时禁止出口，现在禁令却要一直实行到来年秋收时节。结果导致小麦价格猛涨：自从六月份出现4.26美元一蒲式耳的最低值以来，小麦价格已经差不多涨了一倍。这就造成了世界范围内的恐慌。就在联合国粮食及农业组织（FAO）召开特别会议，讨论不断上涨的小麦价格之时，有报导指出，全世界正面临一场粮食危机，其严重程度可以同2007-2008年的粮食危机相提并论。莫桑比克近日发生的骚乱，或许就是因不断飙升的粮食价格而引发，这在恐慌之时更是火上浇油。 　　Many poorer countries are fearful that rising food prices will spark more of the same: in the earlier crisis violent protests shook many countries including Egypt, Haiti, C?te d’Ivoire, Uzbekistan and Bolivia. To head this off Egypt, the world’s biggest importer of wheat, as well as Tunisia, Algeria and Jordan, have all reacted to the Russian ban by buying extra wheat on the spot market. It is likely that these and other countries have sought to secure supplies by buying wheat futures too, though the opacity of that market makes buyers’ identities unclear. 　　许多经济情况欠佳的国家都害怕粮食价格不断上涨会引发更多的骚乱：在之前的那次粮食危机当中，许多国家（包括埃及、海地、科特迪瓦、乌兹别克斯坦以及玻利维亚）都因为暴力抗议事件而大受震动。为防患于未然，世界最大的小麦进口国??埃及，以及突尼斯、阿尔及利亚和约旦，都开始从现货市场上额外购买小麦，以此来回应俄罗斯小麦出口禁令。而在期货市场上，尽管买家身份因为市场本身的不透明性而无法为外界知晓，但上述国家以及其他国家仍有可能已经购买小麦期货，以保障供应。 　　Such panicky behaviour amplifies the impact of the Russian export ban. But the effects of short-term jitters should ease soon. The crisis two years ago, by contrast, was the result of a more worrying structural shift: a slow build up of demand in developing countries where rising living standards fed the desire for more meat-based meals. This added to demand for cereals (a kilo of poultry requires about two kilos of grain, a kilo of beef much more). The result was a rise in prices over a much longer time and in many other commodities such as rice too. This year has brought a sudden spike, mainly in wheat. Prices now are still more than 40% below those record highs (see chart). They are barely higher than in January. 　　俄罗斯出台小麦出口禁令，其影响因为这些恐慌行为而被放大。但短期的恐慌应该很快就可以平息。相比之下，两年前发生的粮食危机则是由于出现了更为令人担忧的结构性变化：发展中国家的需求正在慢慢增加，人们的生活水平正在逐渐提高，对以肉类为主的膳食需求也因而增长。这样也就增加了谷物的需求量（一公斤禽肉需要消耗大约两公斤的谷物，而一公斤牛肉则需要消耗更多）。结果就是，在相当长的一段时间内，其他许多商品（例如稻米）的价格也都会出现上涨。今年突然出现的上涨，则主要见于小麦价格。目前，小麦的价格仍旧比历史记录低了40%多（见图表）。相比一月份，小麦现在的价格高不到哪里去。  　　Closer scrutiny reveals a sunnier picture in other respects too. Supplies are strong. The FAO estimates world wheat production this year at 646m tonnes, 5% down on 2009’s bumper crop but still the third-highest on record, thanks to excellent harvests in America and Canada. Australia is also set for a weighty crop, having successfully dealt with a threatened plague of locusts. Last year’s bonanza replenished stocks, which stood at a seven-year high at the beginning of the year. By 2011 these inventories will be run down to around 181m tonnes but this is still a lot more than the 144m tonnes of wheat stocks at the height of the food crisis. 　　如果进行一番仔细考察，也可以在其他方面看到更为乐观的图景。小麦供应依然景气。据联合国粮农组织估算，今年世界小麦产量将为6.46亿吨，相比2009年的丰产来说，产量下降了5%，但这一数字依旧在小麦产量记录中位列第三，因为美国和加拿大两国的收成非常之好。澳大利亚在成功应对了可怕的蝗灾之后，预计也将出现大丰收。去年的大丰收充实了小麦库存 human hair wigs，今年年初，小麦库存创下了七年以来的最高纪录。到2011年，小麦库存将降至大约1.81亿吨，但这一数字仍旧大大高于粮食危机最为严重时的1.44亿吨。 　　Maximo Torero of the International Food Policy Research Institute, a think-tank, says that even with export bans in Ukraine and Kazakhstan (both under consideration, not least thanks to Russian pressure) supplies are still ample. And farmers should respond to the high prices by planting more wheat for next year. Oliver Walston, a Cambridgeshire farmer, says the jitters make life “difficult, exciting and depressing”. He regrets that he sold part of his harvest on forward contracts when prices were low. But farmers sitting on unsold stocks are in for a windfall. 　　国际粮食政策研究所（一个智库）的马克西默?托雷罗表示，即使乌克兰和哈萨克斯坦出台出口禁令（两国都在考虑之中，尤其是在有俄罗斯施压的情况下），小麦的供应也将依然充足。而且，作为对小麦价格高涨的回应，农民也会种植更多的小麦，以待来年收割。剑桥郡农民奥利弗?沃尔斯顿表示，小麦价格引起的恐慌让生活“充满艰辛、刺激和沮丧”。他后悔自己在小麦价格走低的时候把一部分收成以远期合同的形式卖了出去。而那些没有把库存销出去的农民这回可就有的赚了。 　　Other factors should dampen prices, too. Livestock farmers are substituting cheaper feedstocks for wheat. The oil price is lower, cutting transport costs and demand for grain-based biofuels. 　　还有其他一些因素也可能促使小麦降价。饲养牲畜的农民正以价格更低的饲料来代替小麦。由于油价有所下调，交通成本以及谷物制成的生物燃料的需求量也因而降低。 　　Admittedly, some stabilising factors from past decades have eroded. Increasing demand from developing countries has tightened the market, making disruptions such as Russia’s export ban more noticeable. Countries such as Russia and Ukraine used to be insignificant exporters: better farming there means now they supply some 30% of the world’s wheat. Other growers in the northern hemisphere have planted less. Abdolreza Abbassian of the FAO thinks that the variable weather in the region around the Black Sea makes it inherently less suited to cereal cultivation. 　　必须承认的是，过去几十年中的一些稳定性因素已经遭到侵蚀。发展中国家与日俱增的需求导致市场紧缩，诸如俄罗斯出口禁令这类无助于市场稳定的事件，也因为市场紧缩而变得更加惹人注意。俄罗斯以及乌克兰等国过去算不上小麦的大宗出口国：而如今，随着农业种植条件的改良，这些国家的小麦供给差不多占到了全世界的30% Long Length Wigs。与此同时，北半球其他一些小麦生产国则缩减了小麦种植规模。联合国粮农组织的阿布多雷萨?阿巴西安认为，黑海沿岸地区气候多变，这就决定了该地区的谷物耕种存在先天不足。 Puffed wheat 不得了的麦子 　　If volatility increases, it may prove a problem for farmers who have confusing signals about what crops to plant for the next year’s harvest. Climate change, with its promise of droughts and floods, also adds uncertainty. Recent floods in Pakistan, the world’s eighth-largest wheat producer, arrived after this year’s harvest but the damage wrought by the waters may yet affect next year’s crop. 　　如果不稳定因素继续增加，对于那些不知道来年该种植何种作物的农民来说，或许就真的会成为一大难题。除此之外，气候变化，以及可能随之而来的干旱和洪水灾害，也将增添不稳定性因素。在世界第八大小麦生产国巴基斯坦，近日的洪水灾害虽然发生在今年的收获期之后，但水害依然有可能殃及来年的收成 hair wigs。 　　During the previous food crisis several countries including Argentina and India as well as Russia reacted to the spiralling price of food crops with export bans, making the supply problem worse. Today’s lower prices and higher stocks should make that unlikely. But if other exporters do follow Russia’s example they may frighten importers into buying more wheat at whatever cost, ratcheting prices up even more. 　　在之前的粮食危机当中，包括阿根廷、印度以及俄罗斯在内的几个国家都出台了出口禁令，以应对粮食作物价格的暴涨，但这也使得粮食供应的问题愈发严重。而在目前，由于粮食价格相对较低，而储量相对较多，粮食的供应应该不成问题。但是，倘若各小麦出口国真的要步俄罗斯的后尘，出台出口禁令的话，各进口国可能就会因此陷入恐慌，不惜一切代价购买更多的小麦，小麦价格也会因此逐步抬升。 　　Tilling the soil involves an early start. But farmers with time for some bedtime reading may find economics text books, with a chapter on game theory, as gripping as the seed catalogues that customarily lull them to sleep. 　　农田耕犁活动需要尽早展开。但是随着时间的推移，农民睡前倚在床头看书的时候，可能就会发现经济学课本（里面要有“博弈论”这一章）跟种子目录（他们通常都是看着这个进入梦乡的）一样引人入胜了。